Alex De Minaur vs Reilly Opelka Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Reilly Opelka recently won 49.16% of points on his second serve, while Alex De Minaur achieved 45.69%. Does this give Opelka an edge in serving? It appears so.
• Both players' return game stats show Minaur excelling with a 42.71% win rate on opponents' second serves, compared to Opelka's 39.91%.
• Minaur outperforms on first serve returns with a 25.84% success rate, while Opelka trails at 18.03%.
• Considering pressure situations, Opelka saves 64.95% of breakpoints, outmatching Minaur, who saves 50.16%.
• Over the past year, Opelka won 52.63% of matches, whereas Minaur boasts a 67.61% win rate, showcasing his better recent form.
• Opelka’s career win rate is highest on indoor hard courts at 67%, while Minaur's strength lies on grass with a 68% win rate.
• On the Main tour over the last year, Minaur has a superior win rate of 73.08% compared to Opelka’s 53.57%.
• In head-to-head matchups, Minaur has won all 5 encounters, never losing to Opelka, taking 10 out of 12 sets played.
• In deciding sets against each other, Minaur leads 2-0, suggesting he fares better in tense moments.
• They have played 7 tiebreaks, with Minaur ahead 5-2 in wins, indicating his advantage under pressure.
• Minaur has competed against higher-ranked opponents, averaging a rank of 56.82, compared to Opelka's 99.84 average opponent rank.
• Opelka’s deciding set win rate is 58% over the last 12 months, slightly better than Minaur’s 53% in such scenarios.
• In terms of breakpoint conversion, Minaur leads significantly with 33.68% compared to Opelka’s 21.49% success rate.

Editorial Prediction (August 10, 2025, UTC):

In analyzing the statistical data and past performances, Alex De Minaur demonstrates a consistent edge over Reilly Opelka. Minaur not only outperforms Opelka in most head-to-head metrics but also maintains superior form against higher-ranked opponents.

Minaur's stronger return game and ability to handle high-pressure situations, such as tiebreaks and deciding sets, further bolster his case as the favorite. Although Opelka has marginal advantages in some serve statistics, these are outweighed by Minaur's comprehensive strengths.

Given these factors, Alex De Minaur is predicted to be the more likely winner in their upcoming match.